Key Challenges and Issues facing the Liquid Biofuels: The North American Market

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Liquid Biofuels: The North American Market

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INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOAL AND OBJECTIVES

This BCC Research report is designed to offer an in-depth analysis of the market for liquid biofuels in North America. While the term “biofuels” describes solid, liquid, or gaseous fuel derived from relatively recently dead biological material as opposed to fossil fuels, which are derived from long-dead biological material, for the purposes of this report, biofuels will refer to liquid fuels only. At present, two biofuel types are commercially available, bioethanol and biodiesel. As the term “ethanol” has come to refer to bioethanol in common English language usage, this report also will adhere to that convention.

In addition to ethanol and biodiesel, often referred to a first-generation biofuels, several more fuel types may be manufactured from raw materials derived from plant resources. These include second-generation ethanol (cellulosic ethanol), biobutanol, algae-based biodiesel, Fischer-Tropsch fuels, green gasoline, and others.

The primary drivers for the industry are government mandates that have established levels of biofuels that must be added to fossil fuels. In this study, the market for biofuels is analyzed by feedstock type, by production capacity, and by producer. Market values are calculated from historical per gallon sales prices and predicted prices according to the futures markets. Conclusions are illustrated with statistical information on markets, applications, industry structure, and dynamics, along with technological developments.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

While biofuels account for just 1% of world fuel consumption and only slightly more in North America, they are the subject of considerable global interest. Conventional energy resources, mainly fossil fuels, are becoming limited due to a rapid worldwide increase in demand. A growing imbalance in energy demand and supply affects consumer prices as well as the environment, prompting a search for new sustainable energy resources. Biomass is one such environmentally sound renewable resource from which various fuels can be manufactured. Fuels produced from plant materials also have the potential to invigorate lagging agricultural sectors in emerging countries, such as those in Central America.

The study is intended for individuals requiring an in-depth analysis of the biofuels industry that traces significant developments and forecasts important trends, quantifies the various market sectors, and highlights companies active in those areas.

Because of the diverse and fragmented nature of the industry, it is difficult to find studies that gather such extensive data from far-reaching resources and have this data presented in one comprehensive document. This report contains a unique collection of information, analyses, forecasts, and conclusions that is very hard (or impossible) to find elsewhere.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

With the significant rise in North American biofuels production, increasing volumes of agricultural resources are being diverted to the industry. This phenomenon has created concerns regarding agricultural resource competition and how it might affect food production in North America and around the world.

This report on biofuel products, process technology, market players, and industry trends is intended to present pertinent information for anyone concerned with the interface between agriculture, energy, and fuels. Interested parties might include: new business and business development managers, project investors and developers, green power marketers, energy market advisors, energy professionals, engineers, venture capital investors, commodity brokers and analysts, biofuel producers, biofuels technology and equipment suppliers, feedstock suppliers, energy and environmental researchers, vegetable oil crushers and refiners, fuel blenders, marketers and distributors, and oil and gas project developers.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOAL AND OBJECTIVES

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

INTENDED AUDIENCE

SCOPE OF REPORT

INFORMATION SOURCES

ANALYST CREDENTIALS

RELATED PUBLICATIONS

BCC ONLINE SERVICES

DISCLAIMER

CHAPTER TWO: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (CONTINUED)

SUMMARY TABLE VALUE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN BIOFUELS MARKET, THROUGH 2013 ($ BILLIONS)

SUMMARY FIGURE VALUE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MARKET BY BIOFUEL TYPE, 2002-2013 ($ BILLIONS)

CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW

FIGURE 1 WORLD ENERGY MATRIX (%)

CONVERSION ROUTES FOR BIOFUELS PRODUCTION

FIGURE 2 THERMAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICALS ROUTES TO BIOFUELS PRODUCTION

CONVERSION ROUTES FOR … (CONTINUED)

FIGURE 3 THE HOLISTIC ETHANOL FACILITY

BIOFUEL EVOLUTION

FIRST-GENERATION FUELS

TABLE 1 ENERGY CONTENT OF COMMERCIAL FUELS

SECOND-GENERATION FUELS

THIRD-GENERATION FUELS

FOURTH-GENERATION FUELS

FEEDSTOCKS

YIELD

TABLE 2 RELATIVE YIELD OF CURRENT AND PROPOSED BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS (GAL./ACRE)

FIGURE 4 RELATIVE YIELD OF CURRENT AND PROPOSED BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS (GAL./ACRE)

FIGURE 4 (CONTINUED)

NET ENERGY YIELD

TABLE 3 NET ENERGY YIELD OF CURRENT AND PROPOSED BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS (EROI)

FIGURE 5 NET ENERGY YIELD OF CURRENT AND PROPOSED BIOFUEL FEEDSTOCKS (EROI)

FIGURE 5 (CONTINUED)

COST OF PRODUCTION

TABLE 4 RELATIVE COSTS OF BIOFUELS FROM VARIOUS FEEDSTOCKS, 2008 ($/BBL., ESTIMATED)

FIGURE 6 RELATIVE COSTS OF BIOFUELS FROM VARIOUS FEEDSTOCKS, 2008 ($/BBL., ESTIMATED)

CHAPTER FOUR: ETHANOL

TABLE 5 FEEDSTOCKS FOR ETHANOL PRODUCTION

TABLE 5 (CONTINUED)

CORN ETHANOL

TABLE 6 CORN ETHANOL FEEDSTOCK REQUIREMENTS, BY PLANT SIZE

CORN ETHANOL MANUFACTURING

CELLULOSIC ETHANOL

FIGURE 7 ESTIMATED FUTURE POTENTIAL U.S. BIOMASS RESOURCE BASE FOR FUEL ETHANOL PRODUCTION (%)

CELLULOSIC ETHANOL MANUFACTURING

FIGURE 8 CELLULOSIC ETHANOL MANUFACTURING PROCESS

TABLE 7 DOE-SUPPORTED CELLULOSIC ETHANOL PROJECTS

TABLE 7 (CONTINUED)

ETHANOL BLENDING

CO-PRODUCTS OF ETHANOL PRODUCTION

ETHANOL PLANT COSTS

TABLE 8 ESTIMATED CAPITAL AND OPERATING COSTS, BY ETHANOL PLANT SIZE

ETHANOL GROSS MARGINS

TABLE 9 FUTURES PRICES FOR ETHANOL, CORN, NATURAL GAS, AND PROJECTED PRICES FOR DISTILLERS GRAINS, JANUARY 2009

FIGURE 9 ETHANOL OPERATING MARGINS BASED ON FUTURES PRICES , JANUARY 2009

CHAPTER FIVE: BIODIESEL

TABLE 10 FEEDSTOCKS FOR BIODIESEL PRODUCTION

TABLE 10 (CONTINUED)

BIODIESEL MANUFACTURING

TRANSESTERIFICATION

POST REACTION PROCESSES

BIODIESEL BLENDING

CO-PRODUCTS OF BIODIESEL MANUFACTURING

BIODIESEL PLANT COSTS

TABLE 11 BIODIESEL PRODUCTION COSTS (5 MGY PLANT, BASED ON SOYBEAN COSTS OF $0.22/LB)

FIGURE 10 BIODIESEL PRODUCTION COSTS (5 MGY PLANT, BASED ON SOYBEAN COSTS OF $0.22/LB.) (%)

BIODIESEL GROSS MARGINS

TABLE 12 FUTURES PRICES FOR HEATING OIL, SOYBEAN OIL, AND PROJECTED PRICES FOR BIODIESEL, JANUARY

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Liquid Biofuels: The North American Market