Fixing Detroit: How Far, How Fast, How Fuel Efficient?
A New University of Michigan Report Analyzes Scope and Pace of Change Needed To Turn Detroit 3 Around
ANN ARBOR, Mich., June 22 -- As the domestic automobile industry struggles to address the worst financial crisis in its history, a new report released today by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) analyzes critical choices faced by automakers and finds that broad, deep, fast change is necessary for success.
According to the report, "Fixing Detroit: How Far, How Fast, How Fuel Efficient?" successful turnarounds hinge on rapid cultural transformation, which requires replacement of management teams. Further, the report finds that the existing culture within the domestic auto companies systematically underestimates the value of fuel economy, which has crippled profitability.
Modeling the impact of increased fuel economy standards, the study finds that an industry-wide mandated increase in fuel economy of 30 percent to 50 percent (35 miles per gallon to 40.4 mpg) would increase Detroit automakers' gross profits by roughly $3 billion per year and increase sales by the equivalent of two large assembly plans. The chance that increased profits could exceed $6 billion is 18 percent if fuel economy standards were increased to 40.4 mpg, but only 6 percent if standards remain at the mandated 35 mpg.
"Our findings support rapid, wide-reaching change in business models," said Walter McManus, director of UMTRI's Automotive Analysis Division and co-author of the report. "The key to a long-term recovery is executing an excellent portfolio of products, and we find that increasing fuel economy standards will lead to a portfolio of products that is more likely to raise the profits of the Detroit 3 automakers than to lower them."
Rob Kleinbaum, former GM employee and consultant and report co-author, said the industry attitude about fuel economy is symptomatic of its current culture.
"For years it has discounted consumer research results when calculating the benefits of improving fuel economy, often by as much as two thirds," he said. "If GM had followed its own market research results over the last three decades, they would not be in Chapter 11 today."
Findings Speed & Scope
The report analyzes extensive literature on the successful turnaround of six international companies of comparable size, diversity and distress to the domestic automobile industry. Research revealed universal approaches critical to success:
-- Implement Broad, Deep, Fast Change: All successful efforts addressed
the fundamental issues that drove them into crisis and they did it as
fast as possible.
-- Replace Management Team: In addition to changes in strategy and
structure, in all cases there were widespread changes in management.
-- Transform Culture: All of the successful companies considered changing
culture a critical requirement and made it a top priority for success.
-- Build a Portfolio of Excellent Products: The path to long-term
financial health of any company rests on having a great product
portfolio. Our domestic auto industry, in its modern incarnation, has
never been able to execute an excellent portfolio, only isolated
successes.
Fuel Economy
The report models the impact of three different fuel economy standard increases -- 30 percent (35 mpg), 40 percent (37.7 mpg) and 50 percent (40.4 mpg) -- on the profitability and sales of the industry and separately for the Detroit 3, the Japan 3, and all others. The model captures the cost of fuel economy improvement on suppliers, its impact on pricing and the resulting changes in demand. The inputs to the model are the most recent and accepted estimates of all the key parameters, but since there is debate on many of these values, the report conducts an extensive sensitivity analysis on the results.
Modeling results include:
-- The Detroit 3 gain profits over base in all scenarios, with the
largest profits gained from pursuing more aggressive fuel economy.
-- Japanese automakers' profit gains are smaller than the Detroit 3, with
the smallest profits gained from pursuing a 50 percent increase (40.4
mpg) in fuel economy.
-- At a 50 percent increase, the Japanese industry loses sales while the
domestic industry continues to gain in sales and profitability -- a
result driven by the different starting points.
The value given to fuel economy by automakers has critical impact moving forward. According to the report:
-- There is compelling evidence that the Detroit 3 have systematically
underestimated the value of fuel economy to customers.
-- Because Detroit 3 automakers have long underestimated the consumer
value of fuel economy, raising fuel economy standards will not cost
more than consumers would be willing to pay.
-- In every scenario, the average cost per vehicle (direct plus indirect)
is less than what consumers would be willing to pay.
In a sensitivity analysis conducted on inputs to the model, the report finds:
-- The chance that increased profits could exceed $6 billion is 18
percent for a 50 percent increase (40.4 mpg) in fuel economy, but only
6 percent for a 30 percent increase (35 mpg).
-- There is a 7 percent chance that profits would be less than zero if
fuel economy standards were increased to 35 mpg, and a 15 percent
chance of profit loss if standards were increased to 40.4 mpg.
-- Three of the factors had extreme values capable of generating a drop
in Detroit 3 profits: a gasoline price of $1.50 per gallon (a price
not seen since 1999); extremely low consumer response to fuel costs
relative to vehicle prices; and direct manufacturing costs (materials
and labor) that are more than twice the estimates used by McManus and
Kleinbaum and three-to-four times National Research Council estimates
(adjusted for inflation).
The new report builds on studies published by UMTRI beginning in 2005 predicting that the three biggest domestic automakers stood to lose billions in profits and thousands of jobs in the event of an oil spike -- a prediction borne out as Hurricane Katrina and tensions around the world sent prices skyward. The studies documented the financial risks to Detroit automakers and the risks to American jobs of higher fuel prices, and predicted that gas prices more than $3 per gallon could lead to combined losses of $7 billion to $11 billion of profits for Detroit automakers.
By the time gasoline prices spiked to more than $4 a gallon in July of last year, Ford and GM had already reported combined losses on their automotive operations of more than $57.2 billion. And through the first quarter of this year their cumulative automotive operations losses since 2004 total $83.6 billion. In addition, they have lost 14.2 points of market share since 2004 (GM down 8.8 points and Ford down 5.4 points).
