J.D. Power and Associates Reports: October New-Vehicle Retail Sales Improve from September, Indicating Resilience in the Industry

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Oct. 23, 2009 -- October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to decline only 6 percent compared with one year ago--the first single-digit decline since May 2008, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 franchisees across the United States. This decline marks the most significant improvement in 17 months, excluding August 2009 when year-over-year sales were up 13 percent due to the CARS program.

October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 651,600 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.3 million units. With fleet volume down only 4 percent from one year ago, total sales for October are projected to come in at 816,600 units, down 6 percent from October 2008.

"While year-over-year comparisons benefit from a low selling base in October 2008, improvements in consumer confidence and credit are propelling the return to positive sales gains relative to last year," said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates. "October's selling rate is expected to come in at 10.3 million units--nearly flat compared with 10.5 million units one year ago--which is an encouraging sign for the industry and in line with our expectations for the rest of the year."

  J.D. Power and Associates U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons - October 2009

                    October 2009(1)   September 2009    October 2008
  New-vehicle
   retail sales     651,600 units     565,446 units     668,159 units
                   (6% lower than
                    October 2008)(2)

  Total vehicle
   sales            816,600 units     744,161 units     834,018 units
                   (6% lower than
                    October 2008)

  Retail SAAR      8.3 million        7.2 million        8.7 million
                    units              units              units

  Total SAAR       10.3 million       9.3 million        10.5 million
                     units             units              units

  (1) Figures cited for October 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the
      first 15 selling days of the month.
  (2) The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days
      (28 days vs. 27 days one year ago).

While most of the retail segment mix remains relatively unchanged from September, the share of pickup trucks increased to nearly 14 percent from less than 12 percent last month, driven mainly by strong marketing programs, incentives and stable fuel prices.

J.D. Power and Associates is maintaining its forecast for 2009 at 10.3 million units for total sales, with retail sales projected to come in at 8.6 million units. The 2010 forecast remains at 11.5 million units for total sales and 9.5 million units for retail sales.

"As economic conditions improve, there's a renewed sense of optimism and momentum building in the industry," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "While 2009 has been a difficult year, this crisis will lead to innovation and efficiency gains, ultimately creating a healthier industry. Total sales in 2010 are expected to improve 12 percent from 2009, but given the right conditions, next year could be even stronger than currently predicted."

About J.D. Power and Associates

Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates is a global marketing information services company operating in key business sectors including market research, forecasting, performance improvement, Web intelligence and customer satisfaction. The company's quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit JDPower.com. J.D. Power and Associates is a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies.

About The McGraw-Hill Companies

Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies is a leading global information services provider meeting worldwide needs in the financial services, education and business information markets through leading brands such as Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, BusinessWeek and J.D. Power and Associates. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2008 were $6.4 billion. Additional information is available at http://www.mcgraw-hill.com/.