J.D. Power and Associates Reports: August 2010 New-Vehicle Retail Sales Hold the Line on a Slow Recovery
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WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., Aug. 19, 2010 -- The new-vehicle retail selling rate in August is expected to decline slightly from a relatively strong level in July, but remains above the selling rate from the first half of 2010, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 retail franchisees throughout the United States.
Retail Light-Vehicle Sales
August new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 857,000 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.9 million units. August's selling rate is expected to decrease slightly from July's selling rate of 9.2 million units. Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.
"Incentive levels are down 8 percent from July, but retail light-vehicle sales in August are showing relative strength," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "While August retail sales are expected to be down 22 percent from August 2009, if the distortion from 2009's CARS program is removed, August 2010 is actually up about 14 percent on a selling day-adjusted basis, signaling continued improvement year over year."
U.S. Retail SAAR from August 2009 to August 2010(1) (in millions of units)
(1) SAARs for 2010 are revised based on new seasonals from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Total Light-Vehicle Sales
Total light-vehicle sales for August are expected to come in 15 percent lower than August 2009, which was impacted by the CARS program. However, with an increase in fleet activity, the August selling rate is up by 300,000 units, compared with July. Fleet sales in August are expected to account for 17 percent of total sales, which is down from the year-to-date level of 22 percent, but significantly higher than August 2009 when fleet sales accounted for 9 percent of total sales.
J.D. Power and Associates U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
August 2010(2) July 2010 August 2009
-------------- --------- -----------
New-vehicle
retail
sales 857,000 units 878,168 units 1,142,876 units
----------- ------------- ------------- ---------------
(22% lower than August
2009)(3)
-----------------------
Total
vehicle
sales 1,030,000 units 1,047,715 units 1,259,708 units
-------- --------------- --------------- ---------------
(15% lower than August
2009)
-----------------------
9.2 million 11.2 million
Retail SAAR 8.9 million units units units
----------- ----------------- ------------ -------------
11.5 million 14.1 million
Total SAAR 11.8 million units units units
---------- ------------------ ------------ -------------
(2) Figures cited for August 2010 are forecasted based on the first
11 selling days of the month.
(3) The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling
days (25 days vs. 26 days one year ago).
Sales Outlook
As a result of the lower-than-expected retail sales rate, J.D. Power and Associates has revised its 2010 forecast downward slightly to 9.2 million units for retail sales (from 9.4 million units) and 11.6 million units for total sales (from 11.7 million units).
The flattening of the recovery is expected to extend into 2011, impacting the sales outlook for the year. J.D. Power's 2011 forecast has been revised downward to 10.7 million units for retail sales and 13.2 million units for total sales.
"Lower consumer spending--fueled by current economic conditions and a high unemployment rate--and lower incentive expectations are impeding the pace of the recovery," said Schuster. "While a sharper uptick in vehicle sales was previously expected for 2011, the reality of a prolonged recovery has driven a reduction in the forecast."
North American Production
On a year-to-date basis through July, North American vehicle production is up 67 percent, compared with the same period in 2009. The Detroit 3 manufacturers account for 61 percent of the increased production volume seen thus far in 2010. Overall, as production volumes in the second half of 2010 level off, light-vehicle production in North America is expected to end the year with almost 11.5 million units produced, an increase of nearly 35 percent from 2009.
Vehicle inventory continues to be maintained at a disciplined level, with days supply at the end of July decreasing slightly to 52 days--three fewer days than at the end of June.
"Through industry-wide inventory management, manufacturers are showing impressive restraint in not over-producing," said Schuster. "However, this restraint is causing shortages in certain vehicle lines, so the desired balance between supply and demand at a model level is still a work in progress."
About J.D. Power and Associates
Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power and Associates is a global marketing information services company operating in key business sectors including market research, forecasting, performance improvement, Web intelligence and customer satisfaction. The company's quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit JDPower.com. J.D. Power and Associates is a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies.
About The McGraw-Hill Companies
Founded in 1888, The McGraw-Hill Companies is a global information and education company providing knowledge, insights and analysis in the financial, education and business information sectors through leading brands including Standard & Poor's, McGraw-Hill Education, Platts, and J.D. Power and Associates. The Corporation has more than 280 offices in 40 countries. Sales in 2009 were $5.95 billion. Additional information is available at http://www.mcgraw-hill.com/.
