TrueCar.com Forecasts New and Used Auto Sales; Incentives Spending for March
 |
SANTA MONICA, CA--March 24, 2011: TrueCar.com,today released its March 2011 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
- For March 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,190,931 units, up 20 percent from March 2010 and up 12 percent from February 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
- The March 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 12.5 million new car sales, down significantly from 13.4 million in February 2011 and up from 11.7 million in March 2010
- Retail sales are up 20 percent compared to February 2011 and up 11 percent from March 2010
- Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales in March 2011
- The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,432 in March 2011, which represents a drop of six percent from February 2011 and down 13 percent from March 2010
- Used car sales* is estimated to be 2,459,891, up 37 percent from February 2011 and up three percent from March 2010. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2 for March 2011
"There has been so much uncertainty in the market this month, with the disaster in Japan and the unrest in the Middle East, causing either higher gas prices or potential supply chain problems that have resulted in inventory shortages," said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insight for TrueCar.com. "When there is unrest, consumers tend to take a wait and see approach to purchasing big ticket items."
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for March 2011:
|
Unit Sales Forecast |
||||
|
Manufacturer |
March 2011 Forecast |
% Change vs. Feb. 2011 |
% Change vs. March 2010 |
|
|
Chrysler |
104,653 |
10.0% |
13.0% |
|
|
Ford |
199,712 |
27.8% |
12.1% |
|
|
GM |
232,225 |
12.2% |
23.7% |
|
|
Honda |
118,423 |
20.8% |
9.4% |
|
|
Hyundai/Kia |
94,098 |
23.3% |
21.4% |
|
|
Nissan |
111,074 |
20.2% |
16.3% |
|
|
Toyota |
173,466 |
22.3% |
-7.2% |
|
|
Industry |
1,190,931 |
19.9% |
11.8% |
|
|
|
||||
|
Market Share Forecast |
||||
|
Manufacturer |
March 2011 Forecast |
February 2011 |
March 2010 |
|
|
Chrysler |
8.8% |
9.6% |
8.7% |
|
|
Ford |
16.8% |
15.7% |
16.7% |
|
|
GM |
19.5% |
20.8% |
17.6% |
|
|
Honda |
9.9% |
9.9% |
10.2% |
|
|
Hyundai/Kia |
7.9% |
7.7% |
7.3% |
|
|
Nissan |
9.3% |
9.3% |
9.0 % |
|
|
Toyota |
14.6% |
14.3% |
17.5% |
|
|
|
||||
|
Incentive Spending Forecast |
|||||
|
Manufacturer |
March 2011 Incentives |
Change vs. Feb. 2011 |
Change vs. March 2010 |
Total Spending |
|
|
Chrysler |
$3,181 |
4.2% |
-10.8% |
$332,926,726 |
|
|
Ford |
$2,740 |
7.8% |
-9.7% |
$547,140,417 |
|
|
GM |
$3,109 |
-16.7% |
-2.1% |
$721,874,571 |
|
|
Honda |
$1,861 |
-5.9% |
-11.5% |
$220,374,131 |
|
|
Hyundai/Kia |
$1,308 |
2.9% |
-36.2% |
$123,105,488 |
|
|
Nissan |
$2,623 |
-3.1% |
-18.4% |
$291,300,353 |
|
|
Toyota |
$1,772 |
-11.4% |
-22.7% |
$307,410,769 |
|
|
Industry |
$2,432 |
-5.6% |
-13.1% |
$2,896,776,923 |
|
|
|
|||||
Toprak continues, "Incentive spending in March is the lowest since January 2007, which had a negative impact on sales. GM and Toyota led the way, with double digit declines in spending this month."
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
