New-Vehicle Sales To Rise 2.2 Percent In November On Black Friday Deals
 2014 Jeep Cherokee |
Fiat Chrysler Set for Most Growth of Major Automakers; Most Brands Benefitting from Small SUV/Crossover Strength
IRVINE, CA -- Nov. 25, 2014: New-vehicle sales are expected to increase 2.2 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.27 million units, resulting in an estimated 16.8 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book.
"Black Friday vehicle deals should have a large impact on sales and make the final weekend of the month a busy one for car buying," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Shoppers continue to return to the dealership as economic conditions remain favorable, with the unemployment rate at its lowest in six years and with consumer confidence nearing pre-recession levels."
Key Highlights for Estimated November 2014 Sales Forecast:
In November 2014, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,270,000 units, up 2.2 percent from November 2013, and down 0.6 percent from October 2014.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for November 2014 is estimated to be 16.8 million, up from 16.2 million in November 2013, and up from 16.3 million in October 2014.
Retail sales are expected to account for 85 percent of volume in November 2014, down from 86 percent in November 2013.
Fiat Chrysler Set for Most Growth of Major Automakers; Honda Core Product Sales Remain Healthy
As seen in most of 2014, Fiat Chrysler is set for the most growth of any major manufacturer, with an expected overall year-over-year increase of nearly 12 percent. The top-performing brand, Jeep, has an impressive year-to-date growth of 46 percent, which may start to slow as year-over-year comparisons now include the new Cherokee. However, the upcoming launch of the Renegade will continue to push the brand's volume even higher in 2015.
American Honda also is poised for a strong month in November, with an increase of nearly 4 percent. While this year hasn't been the strongest for Honda with year-to-date sales up less than 1 percent, sales of its core products, including Accord, CR-V and Civic, remain healthy with all three models in the top two of their respective segments.
| Sales Volume 1 | Market Share 2 | |||||
| Manufacturer | Nov-14 | Nov-13 | YOY % | Nov-14 |
Nov-13 | YOY % |
| General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 215,000 | 212,060 | 1.4% | 16.9% | 17.1% | -0.1% |
| Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln) | 188,000 | 189,705 | -0.9% |
14.8% |
15.3% |
-0.5% |
| Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 182,000 | 178,044 | 2.2% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM) | 159,000 | 142,275 | 11.8% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 1.1% |
| American Honda (Acura, Honda) | 121,000 | 116,507 | 3.9% |
9.5% |
9.4% |
0.1% |
| Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan) | 110,000 | 106,528 | 3.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 0.1% |
| Hyundai-Kia | 98,000 | 101,416 | -3.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | -0.4% |
| Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche) | 49,500 | 48,329 | 2.4% |
3.9% |
3.9% |
0.0% |
| Total 3 | 1,270,000 | 1,242,262 | 2.2% | - | - | - |
| 1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements | ||||||
| 2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights | ||||||
| 3 Includes brands not shown |
Most Automakers Benefitting from Small Utility Vehicle Growth; GM, Fiat Chrysler Making the Most of Outgoing F-Series Growth in the small SUV/crossover segment continues with no end in sight, and Kelley Blue Book expects nearly double-digit increases in November. Most automakers are benefitting from this trend, as half of the models in this segment have surpassed 2013 sales totals with two more months left to report.
"November should be another good month for full-size truck sales, as GM and Fiat Chrysler have one last opportunity to sell their models against the outgoing generation of the F-Series, with the new 2015 Ford F-150 scheduled to hit dealerships next month," said Gutierrez. "So far, these manufacturers have made the most of the opportunity, as all of their trucks posted double-digit growth in the last three months."
| Sales Volume 1 | Market Share | |||||
| Segment | Nov-14 | Nov-13 | YOY % | Nov-14 |
Nov-13 | YOY % |
| Compact Car | 175,000 | 172,590 | 1.4% |
13.8% |
13.9% |
-0.1% |
| Mid-Size Car |
172,000 | 172,770 | -0.4% |
13.5% |
13.9% |
-0.4% |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 163,000 | 155,424 | 4.9% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 0.3% |
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 156,000 | 142,489 | 9.5% |
12.3% |
11.5% |
0.8% |
| Entry-level Luxury Car | 71,000 | 72,599 | -2.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | -0.3% |
| Total 2 | 1,270,000 | 1,242,262 | 2.2% |
- | - | - |
| 1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights | ||||||
| 2 Includes segments not shown |
