The Dawn of The 21st Century To Yield 'Most Exciting Period in Automotive History'
17 December 1997
The Dawn of The 21st Century To Yield 'Most Exciting Period in Automotive History'Technological, Marketing Experts Foresee Dramatic Changes WASHINGTON, Dec. 17 -- With the second century of the automotive industry still in its infancy, technical experts and dealers alike see dramatic changes ahead. Styling, performance and technological advances on everyone's minds, with industry insiders predicting that the future will move from drawing board to showroom faster than most consumers realize. For Robert Riley, author of Alternative Cars in the 21st Century, the "Race to the Millennium" highlighted by the Washington Auto Show is "the most exciting period in the automotive industry. The industry is alive with ideas, involving both the academic and scientific communities," said Riley. "There's nothing like it and I don't think the man on the street is aware of the work being done." Riley identified four key industry trends that will be apparent to most consumers within the first decade of the 21st century. By 2010, car buyers may see: -- A styling trend toward the one-box design -- vehicles without a prominent or separate front-end. While traditional sedans use a three-box design, with distinctive front, middle and back sections, the one-box design is more typical of a van configuration. -- Major changes in power trains. "My sense is that between now and 2010, we'll see a proliferation of new automobile power systems," said Riley. "Battery-powered vehicles are really here now and hybrid vehicles are just starting to show up." Cars powered by fuel-cells as opposed to combustion could appear by 2010, predicts Riley, although there are still hurdles to cross regarding cost and size. -- Completely new types of vehicles. "We are now re-defining the automobile and creating a new type of transportation product." Riley characterizes current progress as the "toe in the water" stage, but predicts that we will soon see a "totally different type of vehicle from major car manufacturers." Necessary vehicle size, energy pressures, environmental concerns and the growing number of cars on the road will all shape the vehicle of the 21st Century. -- New technology in collision avoidance. Riley envisions that as the century progresses so will the use of technology to avoid crashes, reflecting a shift toward collision avoidance rather than collision survival. "There is technology available whereby an electronic sensor could signal an impending collision," explained Riley. If liability issues were not so complex, he said, that technology "could be in cars next year." Video mechanisms that can automatically steer cars by reading lane markings are also being tested, said Riley. Intelligent cruise control that automatically adjusts when the driver is following too close and visibility systems that can see through fog and rain are other examples of collision avoidance technology. Finally, intelligent air bags with pre-event sensing and variable deployment rates based on the occupant's weight and position are also under development. Many of Riley's predictions are echoed by member dealers from the Washington Area New Automobile Dealers Association (WANADA), with many noting environmental concerns. "We expect to see more environmental responsibility and better performance with less pollution," anticipates Steve Pieper, President of Heishman's in Arlington, Virginia. "In Europe, regulations are in effect to govern environmental management in production facilities. I see this spreading worldwide, to not only have cleaner cars, but have cleaner plants producing cleaner cars." The continuing power of the consumer is also noted. "In the early decades of our industry, style, design and functionality of cars were largely determined by the manufacturer and forced upon the consumer. Today and certainly for the foreseeable future, there is an increasingly knowledgeable and demanding customer base. Customers know what they want in a new vehicle and will search until they find it," said Jonathan Cherner, Cherner Automotive Group. "To meet this demand in the marketplace, manufacturers are racing to be more innovative than their competitors and capture the imagination of the customer." And how will the consumer react, both to the changes made possible by technology and to those mandated by environmental issues? "I believe the customer will be satisfied with the new choices," said Riley. "The customer won't be asked to sacrifice." Riley recognizes that the re-definition of the automobile will mean a vastly different machine will rest in our driveways in the decades to come, but believes that the American consumer is becoming more aware of the need for change in transportation options. "The explosion of vehicles, more so in other parts of the world such as Asia, is frankly bad for the planet. The demand on the environment and the demand for petroleum will explode over the next 10 to 20 years." The good news, said Riley, is that "the transportation industry is doing much of what needs to be done. We're looking at a technological revolution within the next 10 to 20 years." "In another 15 years," said the author, "the automobile will be a fairly benign element with regard to the environment." SOURCE Washington Area New Automobile Dealers Association